just wait for young drivers and higher accidents / races in these new cars. That's all it'd take for legislation to be written, blah...

 

The sad thing is that 2009 is too far away.

I don't think it's good practice to show concept cars in year 2006 when we will see them in 2009. I'd much rather GM reduced that timeframe down to under 12 months. A three year lead time is long enough to let the competition retaliate or catch up.

 

Unfortunately, you are right. It is already happening.
The last time the HP-war started to get exciting, the artificial gas crisis alone was enough to kill it, but that was before the days on instant global communication, internet, and 24-hour news agencies that could dispell "rumors".
Today, I still expect legislation, insurance, and the natural occurances of the world to yank the curtains on this HP war. Mostly, legislation and insurance.

For example, today is the first day a new set of laws goes into effect here in North Carolina, whereby ANY child under the age of 8 is prohibited from driving an ATV of any size. Between the age of 8 and 11, they must have completed a safety course and be operating an ATV of 70cc or less. And so on to age 16, after which ANYONE still has to take a safety course before riding one.
Granted - these are ATV's... for now. Kids getting killed in cars is not much different than kids getting killed on ATV's though, and cars offer the chance to kill MANY others than just the driver (as most ATV accidents do).
I can see legislation coming that will restrict both the HP, age of driver, and even fuel consumption that carmakers are allowed to sell - and without much problem too, especially after the current administration is gone in 2008.

As for insurance, there can be no doubt that rates are going to fly up the charts. There are many myths that need dispelled here too, like "I'm 40 y/o so my rates won't be as bad as a teenager's." That's BS. The rates are determined by each state's insurance board, but there is a rating system that almost all comapnies use (except State Farm who made-up their own system) to determine the risk of insuring a vehicle/driver combo - and the model of the vehicle is a large contributor to that formula. The rating system provided to insurers from the Insurance Services Office (ISO) uses data based on claims, MSRP of the vehicle, crash test results, costs to repair, and the vehicle itself (model, make, etc.). They say clearly that the model has a significant impact on the rating score - regardless of driver's gender, age, etc.
Here's a link to "How Car Model Affects Your Auto Insurance Rates"..
Therefore, all the variables are already in place to allow insurance companies to go ballistic on our GT500, Z/28, Z06, SRT8, and the like. It will only take someone at the ISO updating the rating system, and your insurance agent will be more than happy to inform you that "your rates have been adjusted up by the insurance board, and you owe us $XXX more next month". And what's more, with every car like yours that gets wrapped around a tree or stuck into the rear of a pickup, the rates for EVERYONE that owns one of these cars will keep inching up in response.
When the insurance costs more per month than the car payment, people will NOT be buying the car en-masse - I promise.

Lastly, fuel.
TOO Z MAXX posted above,"Plus the price of gas is starting to come down."
Dude, how long do you think this is going to last?
You know when the next hurricane season begins?
You think refineries across the US are impervious to tornadoes? Lightning?
You think we have instantly created more refining capacity in the US?
You think we have disbanded OPEC and the oil-shipping cartel that control crude supplies/prices?
You think world supply has instantly doubled?
You think world demand has instantly been halved?
You think China is going to use less fuel oil and gas in the next 5 years?
The price of gas is coming down now because it never should have gone up so high so fast in the first place. This, however, DOES NOT mean we have solved the problems that made it go up to start with. It will never be below $1.50 here in the US again, and I doubt it will go much lower than it is right now. In fact, I expect you will see the traditional spring increases in just a few months as people start taking off for spring breaks, vacations, and school lets out. $2/gal is here to stay... until it starts edging back up. And if we get another hurricane or two next year, we will see $3/gal real soon if not more. We have set a precedent now, so every storm or political event that occurs in the Middle-East, Gulf of Mexico, or Venezuela causes the media to go wild with "speculation", which in turn sends everyone with a gas jug to the local store to hoard-up gas and create a panic. History will repeat itself if nothing changes from the first occurance ---- and it hasn't.
So again, if the fuel bill costs 50-70% of the monthly car payment, you can safely assume that most buyers will not be looking at these performance cars for anything close to daily activity/driving, which will rule-out a lot of potential buyers.

That's 3 strikes against big-powered cars for the common working Joe in the near future, and what it all boils down to is that only those with more money than sense will be able to afford a new XXXXX with 500+ hp. I predict this new age with dozens of high-HP musclecars will be short-lived. Only the musclecars that have the most loyal following and a portfolio of lesser offerings to help financially support the "top-dog" will survive... just like 30 years ago.

That's my .02... Bank It or Bust It.

 

ABSOLUTELY a safe bet that Mustang will have a reskin by MY'09, and the opportunity to revamp the driveline too. The new 3.5L engine will be going, hybrid offerings are slated, and more cockpit refinements are a sure bet.

Timing is everything in a niche segment like this, and quick responses to public demand can be the difference between success, also-ran, and failure.

 

OT: 8 years old at the minimum to ride an ATV? Wow, my sister is getting one for my nephew next year... when he turns 3.

 

They're too busy pushing hybrids and going after Hummers.

The only thing I see in the immediate future that would threaten all this is the economy imploding either through a collaspe in the financial market or GM going into bankruptcy which would have a chilling effect on the entire US economy for years.


BTW:
Contrary to popular belief, it wasn't the tree huggers that killed the last performance age:

1. Insurence companies banded together around 1969 and began jacking up insurence rates into the stratosphere on anything that had a performance engine, or had the initials "SS" on it.

2. The Feds mandated that lead would be removed from gasoline. High compression engines needed lead, so that ended high compression engines.

3. The baby boomers who bought sport cars in the mid 60s began looking for more comfort and luxury in their cars as they got older.

4. Finally, we had a rude awakening in 1973 when OPEC banded together and turned off the oil.

Detroit was on the verge of creating another "Muscle Car" age in the 1970s based on compact cars (Ventura GTO, Volare Road Runner, Aspen R/T, Nova SS, etc...) but it fizzled out. Only the Chrysler twins with their 340 based 360 engines, and real dual exhausts lived out the decade.

The tree hugger's role in the demise of the muscle car age is greatly exaggerated.

 

I don't think anybody seriously blames tree huggers for the demise of the 60s muscle car. Several different grades of gas today? Sure - but not the end of the LS6/SCJ/Hemi (real one).

That said, I think this movement is MUCH stronger now, and could play a much more prominent role. Personally, I think we do need to get more efficient and reduce emissions, I simply think that in this case - fun cars that are efficient - we can get there with technology

 

Good points... I agree.
I said too that the hp war is not over NOW, but I think it is going to be short-lived. I'm guessing that 2009/2010 will be the "dawn of the end" of the hp-wars. Last time it went about a decade or so, and that's about where we will be again. It seems that it takes time for the big bureaucratic wheels that comprise government, industry, the insurance business, finance business, and ultimately the people's taste and style, to move.

PS - good plug about the tree-huggers too. They were actually as close to non-significant as it gets when it came to the demise of musclecars and ponycars in 1970-1973. They were too busy burning weed and protesting the war to worry about tire smoke and crude oil.

The real kill-shot was the gas crisis. It was bad enough to have gas rationed to you 5-gallons at a time, but when you could only get it on certain days of the week based on your last name... well, who could sit in a 4-hour line with an engine running that drinks 8 miles/gallon, only to get 5 gallons to last you for 3 more days? People literally HAD to get cars that got 20mpg or better just to get to work and to the gas station again 3 days later.

 

Does the Thunderbird return as a Corvette fighter? I hope so..

 

Yeah but 1969 pretty much marked the end of the muscle car era. Sure it lingered in some cases, but by 1973 performance was on its way out.

I'd rather go back to 1959, which pretty much began the infancy of what was to become one of the greatest decades in automotive history.

 

I couldn't agree more. While I also agree with the comments about rising insurance rates and government legislation being introduced that may offset any gains that automakers are currently making in performance, I think history has pretty much taught us to expect a "one step forward, two steps back" kind've scenario. It may very well be a possibility that by 2009 there will be new laws enacted that will make owning a car like the 5th gen more of a pain in the rump for enthusiasts, but then I see things like this and find that my optimism returns:

http://tmortn.blogspot.com/2005/11/h...ar-gadget.html

Now granted, this is just a prototype device, and for all I know it may turn out to be a complete failure, but the existence of things like this demonstrates that people are looking ahead and are actually trying to do something about the problem, which is refreshing. So even if in the next 5-7 years we hit another speedbump in the road to performance, it's evidence of technology like this that will allow it to bounce back, just as "the computer age" of internal combustion engines that started in the 80's has bounced us back to where we're at today.

I'm hopeful.

 

Adjusted for inflation $5,700 in 1969 is equal to $30,000 in 2005.

Do any of you old-timers know what new muscle & Pony cars were selling for in 1969??

 

There's a McDonald's in the Cincinnati, OH area just outside of the King's Island theme park. Anyway the inside of this McDonald's is all decorated up with Corvette memorabilia. Last time I was there, I remember seeing a poster showing a picture of a 67' Corvette, and at the bottom it showed a photocopy of a window sticker from the dealer: $4,600, fully loaded.

 

My Dad's 69 convertible 'Vette stickered at $5400 for a 427 tri-power (400 horse) with a 4 spd. Hell of a welcome home present to himself after two tours in Vietnam. And btw, he said his c6 convertible would smoke that car up and down the track, road whatever. Amazing how how far technology has come. After being able to drive it a couple weeks ago, I have to say what an absolutely fantastic car.

 

That just shows that the retail prices of many cars have have outpaced inflation and a Corvette in 1969 would sell for under $30,000 in todays $'s. I wont argue that todays cars are faster, safer, and handle better but at the end of the day they are still more expensive.

This reminds me how over the last 15 years the 2005 Honda Civic has grown into what the Honda Accord was in 1990 and the 2005 Accord has grown into what the Acura Legend was in 1990 as well. While automakers keep the same name over the years often those same cars evolve and tranform into a larger, more refined, and more expensive car over a decade or so.

So we can expect the top-model 2009 Camaro will outperform what a new 1999 Vette was able to achieve but that top Camaro will most likely sell close in price to what that 1999 base-level Vette sold for as well.