Thoughts about delay to March 16....
01-10-2009 | 10:26 PM
#32
Registered User
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 35
From: montreal,canada
I've waited this long to have Gen 5 come out that 1 month will not be the end of the world. Some lucky Camaro owners can't/won't/don't even drive them in March anyways. I am coming on the 13th birthday (Jan 19) of my delivery on a flatbed (middle of winter,deeeep freeze too),of my then-brand new 96 SS,a car that stayed in my parking for 4 months before I went on the street with it...talk about patient...build it,and they will buy it (great movie,never liked Kevin Costner much)...RIP My own worst enemy.....Big shout out to Scott,I've kept "it"...I have vented enough,Peace 
01-11-2009 | 08:13 PM
#33
Super Moderator
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 9,497
From: Okemos, MI
Some people here seem to have made an inference that the V6 cars for dealer stock will be built first. Scott said they'd be built, but he didn't say "first." You guys made that up. 
Even though you made it up, I'm going to run with it as a hypothetical to demonstrate a couple things to you guys:
I spent some time at a Chrysler plant a few years back when I was working for a factory automation company. That plant was building 900-1100 cars per shift (roughly one every thirty seconds coming off the line). Let's assume that's a typical build rate for a plant that's running at peak production.
Now let's assume that on March 16th, they running at 1/10 speed at first (I have no idea if that's realistic, but I know they won't start at full speed). That's one car every five minutes, or 96 cars per shift. Let's also assume just one shift.
As I recall, there are about 7,000 Chevy dealerships, and this article indicates that there are 10,000 pre-orders to fill. I'm going to throw out a WAG and claim that 80% of pre-ordered cars are SS's.
Roughly 50% of 4th gen cars were V8s, so I'm also going to guess that the plant will be set up to build V6s and V8s in equal numbers (48 of each, each day, at the reduced production rate I predicted).
A bit of math shows 9,000 V6 cars and 8,000 V8 cars need to be built in order to put one V6 at every dealership and fulfill every preorder. At 48 per day, the 9,000 V6 cars would be done in 188 days (September 19th), and the 8,000 V8 cars would be done in 167 days (August 29th).
Doesn't sound to great, but what are they odds that they spend the first six months at 1/10th of maximum production? Pretty darn low. If everything is going well after the first week (672 cars built already), let's say they ramp it up to 1/4 speed. The remaining cars would be done in 73 days (June 4th). Now let's assume that things continue to go well, and after the second week (2352 cars built at this point), they go to full speed. The remaining cars would be done on April 15th, just 30 days after the start of production. And that's assuming just one shift!
The April 15th date is probably overly optimistic -- there are always hiccups during production ramp-up. But the September 19th date is also overly pessimistic. Let's be clear here -- that is a worst case estimate. The pre-ordered and dealer stock cars will be done some time in between those two dates.
Once they're all built, GM can start putting Camaros, including V8s, on dealer lots and people (like me) will be able to get behind the wheel of an SS and decide if it's really the car for them.
Now, let's all stop spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt, so that Scott can get back to helping Camaro be all that it can be, instead of typing up long rants in response to fearmongers on this board.
Even though you made it up, I'm going to run with it as a hypothetical to demonstrate a couple things to you guys:
I spent some time at a Chrysler plant a few years back when I was working for a factory automation company. That plant was building 900-1100 cars per shift (roughly one every thirty seconds coming off the line). Let's assume that's a typical build rate for a plant that's running at peak production.
Now let's assume that on March 16th, they running at 1/10 speed at first (I have no idea if that's realistic, but I know they won't start at full speed). That's one car every five minutes, or 96 cars per shift. Let's also assume just one shift.
As I recall, there are about 7,000 Chevy dealerships, and this article indicates that there are 10,000 pre-orders to fill. I'm going to throw out a WAG and claim that 80% of pre-ordered cars are SS's.
Roughly 50% of 4th gen cars were V8s, so I'm also going to guess that the plant will be set up to build V6s and V8s in equal numbers (48 of each, each day, at the reduced production rate I predicted).
A bit of math shows 9,000 V6 cars and 8,000 V8 cars need to be built in order to put one V6 at every dealership and fulfill every preorder. At 48 per day, the 9,000 V6 cars would be done in 188 days (September 19th), and the 8,000 V8 cars would be done in 167 days (August 29th).
Doesn't sound to great, but what are they odds that they spend the first six months at 1/10th of maximum production? Pretty darn low. If everything is going well after the first week (672 cars built already), let's say they ramp it up to 1/4 speed. The remaining cars would be done in 73 days (June 4th). Now let's assume that things continue to go well, and after the second week (2352 cars built at this point), they go to full speed. The remaining cars would be done on April 15th, just 30 days after the start of production. And that's assuming just one shift!
The April 15th date is probably overly optimistic -- there are always hiccups during production ramp-up. But the September 19th date is also overly pessimistic. Let's be clear here -- that is a worst case estimate. The pre-ordered and dealer stock cars will be done some time in between those two dates.
Once they're all built, GM can start putting Camaros, including V8s, on dealer lots and people (like me) will be able to get behind the wheel of an SS and decide if it's really the car for them.
Now, let's all stop spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt, so that Scott can get back to helping Camaro be all that it can be, instead of typing up long rants in response to fearmongers on this board.
01-11-2009 | 08:33 PM
#34
Registered User
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 362
Some people here seem to have made an inference that the V6 cars for dealer stock will be built first. Scott said they'd be built, but he didn't say "first." You guys made that up.
Even though you made it up, I'm going to run with it as a hypothetical to demonstrate a couple things to you guys:
I spent some time at a Chrysler plant a few years back when I was working for a factory automation company. That plant was building 900-1100 cars per shift (roughly one every thirty seconds coming off the line). Let's assume that's a typical build rate for a plant that's running at peak production.
Now let's assume that on March 16th, they running at 1/10 speed at first (I have no idea if that's realistic, but I know they won't start at full speed). That's one car every five minutes, or 96 cars per shift. Let's also assume just one shift.
As I recall, there are about 7,000 Chevy dealerships, and this article indicates that there are 10,000 pre-orders to fill. I'm going to throw out a WAG and claim that 80% of pre-ordered cars are SS's.
Roughly 50% of 4th gen cars were V8s, so I'm also going to guess that the plant will be set up to build V6s and V8s in equal numbers (48 of each, each day, at the reduced production rate I predicted).
A bit of math shows 9,000 V6 cars and 8,000 V8 cars need to be built in order to put one V6 at every dealership and fulfill every preorder. At 48 per day, the 9,000 V6 cars would be done in 188 days (September 19th), and the 8,000 V8 cars would be done in 167 days (August 29th).
Doesn't sound to great, but what are they odds that they spend the first six months at 1/10th of maximum production? Pretty darn low. If everything is going well after the first week (672 cars built already), let's say they ramp it up to 1/4 speed. The remaining cars would be done in 73 days (June 4th). Now let's assume that things continue to go well, and after the second week (2352 cars built at this point), they go to full speed. The remaining cars would be done on April 15th, just 30 days after the start of production. And that's assuming just one shift!
The April 15th date is probably overly optimistic -- there are always hiccups during production ramp-up. But the September 19th date is also overly pessimistic. Let's be clear here -- that is a worst case estimate. The pre-ordered and dealer stock cars will be done some time in between those two dates.
Once they're all built, GM can start putting Camaros, including V8s, on dealer lots and people (like me) will be able to get behind the wheel of an SS and decide if it's really the car for them.
Now, let's all stop spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt, so that Scott can get back to helping Camaro be all that it can be, instead of typing up long rants in response to fearmongers on this board.
Even though you made it up, I'm going to run with it as a hypothetical to demonstrate a couple things to you guys:
I spent some time at a Chrysler plant a few years back when I was working for a factory automation company. That plant was building 900-1100 cars per shift (roughly one every thirty seconds coming off the line). Let's assume that's a typical build rate for a plant that's running at peak production.
Now let's assume that on March 16th, they running at 1/10 speed at first (I have no idea if that's realistic, but I know they won't start at full speed). That's one car every five minutes, or 96 cars per shift. Let's also assume just one shift.
As I recall, there are about 7,000 Chevy dealerships, and this article indicates that there are 10,000 pre-orders to fill. I'm going to throw out a WAG and claim that 80% of pre-ordered cars are SS's.
Roughly 50% of 4th gen cars were V8s, so I'm also going to guess that the plant will be set up to build V6s and V8s in equal numbers (48 of each, each day, at the reduced production rate I predicted).
A bit of math shows 9,000 V6 cars and 8,000 V8 cars need to be built in order to put one V6 at every dealership and fulfill every preorder. At 48 per day, the 9,000 V6 cars would be done in 188 days (September 19th), and the 8,000 V8 cars would be done in 167 days (August 29th).
Doesn't sound to great, but what are they odds that they spend the first six months at 1/10th of maximum production? Pretty darn low. If everything is going well after the first week (672 cars built already), let's say they ramp it up to 1/4 speed. The remaining cars would be done in 73 days (June 4th). Now let's assume that things continue to go well, and after the second week (2352 cars built at this point), they go to full speed. The remaining cars would be done on April 15th, just 30 days after the start of production. And that's assuming just one shift!
The April 15th date is probably overly optimistic -- there are always hiccups during production ramp-up. But the September 19th date is also overly pessimistic. Let's be clear here -- that is a worst case estimate. The pre-ordered and dealer stock cars will be done some time in between those two dates.
Once they're all built, GM can start putting Camaros, including V8s, on dealer lots and people (like me) will be able to get behind the wheel of an SS and decide if it's really the car for them.
Now, let's all stop spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt, so that Scott can get back to helping Camaro be all that it can be, instead of typing up long rants in response to fearmongers on this board.
is a very real possibility. That would be awesome. Don't get me wrong, I'm not counting on that, but I think it could indeed happen.
01-12-2009 | 01:11 AM
#36
Registered User
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 9
Some people here seem to have made an inference that the V6 cars for dealer stock will be built first. Scott said they'd be built, but he didn't say "first." You guys made that up.
Even though you made it up, I'm going to run with it as a hypothetical to demonstrate a couple things to you guys:
I spent some time at a Chrysler plant a few years back when I was working for a factory automation company. That plant was building 900-1100 cars per shift (roughly one every thirty seconds coming off the line). Let's assume that's a typical build rate for a plant that's running at peak production.
Now let's assume that on March 16th, they running at 1/10 speed at first (I have no idea if that's realistic, but I know they won't start at full speed). That's one car every five minutes, or 96 cars per shift. Let's also assume just one shift.
As I recall, there are about 7,000 Chevy dealerships, and this article indicates that there are 10,000 pre-orders to fill. I'm going to throw out a WAG and claim that 80% of pre-ordered cars are SS's.
Roughly 50% of 4th gen cars were V8s, so I'm also going to guess that the plant will be set up to build V6s and V8s in equal numbers (48 of each, each day, at the reduced production rate I predicted).
A bit of math shows 9,000 V6 cars and 8,000 V8 cars need to be built in order to put one V6 at every dealership and fulfill every preorder. At 48 per day, the 9,000 V6 cars would be done in 188 days (September 19th), and the 8,000 V8 cars would be done in 167 days (August 29th).
Doesn't sound to great, but what are they odds that they spend the first six months at 1/10th of maximum production? Pretty darn low. If everything is going well after the first week (672 cars built already), let's say they ramp it up to 1/4 speed. The remaining cars would be done in 73 days (June 4th). Now let's assume that things continue to go well, and after the second week (2352 cars built at this point), they go to full speed. The remaining cars would be done on April 15th, just 30 days after the start of production. And that's assuming just one shift!
The April 15th date is probably overly optimistic -- there are always hiccups during production ramp-up. But the September 19th date is also overly pessimistic. Let's be clear here -- that is a worst case estimate. The pre-ordered and dealer stock cars will be done some time in between those two dates.
Once they're all built, GM can start putting Camaros, including V8s, on dealer lots and people (like me) will be able to get behind the wheel of an SS and decide if it's really the car for them.
Now, let's all stop spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt, so that Scott can get back to helping Camaro be all that it can be, instead of typing up long rants in response to fearmongers on this board.
Even though you made it up, I'm going to run with it as a hypothetical to demonstrate a couple things to you guys:
I spent some time at a Chrysler plant a few years back when I was working for a factory automation company. That plant was building 900-1100 cars per shift (roughly one every thirty seconds coming off the line). Let's assume that's a typical build rate for a plant that's running at peak production.
Now let's assume that on March 16th, they running at 1/10 speed at first (I have no idea if that's realistic, but I know they won't start at full speed). That's one car every five minutes, or 96 cars per shift. Let's also assume just one shift.
As I recall, there are about 7,000 Chevy dealerships, and this article indicates that there are 10,000 pre-orders to fill. I'm going to throw out a WAG and claim that 80% of pre-ordered cars are SS's.
Roughly 50% of 4th gen cars were V8s, so I'm also going to guess that the plant will be set up to build V6s and V8s in equal numbers (48 of each, each day, at the reduced production rate I predicted).
A bit of math shows 9,000 V6 cars and 8,000 V8 cars need to be built in order to put one V6 at every dealership and fulfill every preorder. At 48 per day, the 9,000 V6 cars would be done in 188 days (September 19th), and the 8,000 V8 cars would be done in 167 days (August 29th).
Doesn't sound to great, but what are they odds that they spend the first six months at 1/10th of maximum production? Pretty darn low. If everything is going well after the first week (672 cars built already), let's say they ramp it up to 1/4 speed. The remaining cars would be done in 73 days (June 4th). Now let's assume that things continue to go well, and after the second week (2352 cars built at this point), they go to full speed. The remaining cars would be done on April 15th, just 30 days after the start of production. And that's assuming just one shift!
The April 15th date is probably overly optimistic -- there are always hiccups during production ramp-up. But the September 19th date is also overly pessimistic. Let's be clear here -- that is a worst case estimate. The pre-ordered and dealer stock cars will be done some time in between those two dates.
Once they're all built, GM can start putting Camaros, including V8s, on dealer lots and people (like me) will be able to get behind the wheel of an SS and decide if it's really the car for them.
Now, let's all stop spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt, so that Scott can get back to helping Camaro be all that it can be, instead of typing up long rants in response to fearmongers on this board.
01-12-2009 | 01:37 AM
#37
Registered User
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 238
From: Los Angeles, Ca
You know, what is really scary is not the date being pushed back, but that he said the V8 Camaro is safe from CAFE for now. I was really planning on getting a V8 around 2011/2012 and I hope it does not destroy my ability to get the SS.
EDIT: Oh BTW Scott, thanks for being honest, these days it just gets real tiring to hear people give other the people the double talk. At least you are upfront and that is greatly appreciated. Hope the Camaro brings Success to GM.
EDIT: Oh BTW Scott, thanks for being honest, these days it just gets real tiring to hear people give other the people the double talk. At least you are upfront and that is greatly appreciated. Hope the Camaro brings Success to GM.
01-12-2009 | 07:26 AM
#38
Super Moderator
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 9,497
From: Okemos, MI
Since my post is full of estimates and guesses, I think the most valuable information to be gained from what I wrote is this: once the kinks are worked out of the production system and they can go to full speed, it will take hardly any time at all to build all of the cars.
Last edited by JakeRobb; 01-12-2009 at 08:03 AM.
01-12-2009 | 01:38 PM
#40
Super Moderator
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 9,497
From: Okemos, MI
What was the initial build rate?
What is the full-speed build rate?
Were there interim build rates?
If so, how many? How long did each last?
How many issues were encountered during those three months?
01-12-2009 | 01:38 PM
#41
Super Moderator
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 9,497
From: Okemos, MI
01-12-2009 | 04:53 PM
#42
Super Moderator
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 9,497
From: Okemos, MI
I just did some searching, and I found that my estimate of the number of dealerships (I said 7,000) was quite high. As it turns out, the number is more like 4,300.
So, my worst-case estimates are actually more likely to be worse than the worst case.
So, my worst-case estimates are actually more likely to be worse than the worst case.
01-12-2009 | 11:30 PM
#45
Registered User
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 361
From: Buffalo,NY 'burbs